Dutch elections

I have not commented yet on the recent Dutch elections and we have had our first constitutional quasi-crisis already. The results of the elections are baffling. It looks as if the electorate is becoming more and more polarized. To abuse a term of the French political philosoher, Claude Lefort, 'the middle is empty'. (NB: before somebody accuses me of using an oxymoron by putting together in one sentence the words 'French' and 'philosopher' -- I never claimed he was a good philosopher!)

So this leads me to the following wager. We will have long, long negotiations to form a new coalition government. In the end, it will not be possible to have a government that can rule with a decent majority in parliament. As a result we will have a 'zakenkabinet' -- a government consisting of non-political ministers who will rule for a while and then call for new elections. I predict that these new elections will follow by the end of 2008, early 2009 the latest. I wager a good bottle of Australian shiraz (no wait, I will drink that before that time), ok, a good bottle of German Riesling or Sylvaner (yes it exists!). Any takers?